Population Pressures on the House Market!

Well strike me , flat out like a lizard drinking!!!: popular press is advising that the Australian population grew a  ”remarkable ” 452,000 last year alone. This is close to double that of only three years ago. At this rate it suggests an extra one million Australians every two and a half years. Simple arithmetic  tells one, we will reach 38 M by 2050, yes, even higher than government forecasts!

This topic has generated some recent political debate: it has become a hot on radio talk back, especially since the release of the Intergenerational report.
Research, shows that student numbers have certainly doubled over the last three years to reach a level of 630,000, the most popular subject for study is English, which can be so handy for residency applications.

Some of the 900,000 expatriate Australians are also returning from overseas, due to lower income taxes in Australia, the stronger Australian dollar and the opportunity from a growing Australian economy.
Until recently, New Zealanders had rights to unrestricted entry, so who knows how many Australians are from NZ : Certainly the government doesnt know!

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Reading the popular press one will notice  all sorts of “reasons” why house prices are rising,
1   Immigration is above many expectations adding to the total population growth of 435,000 last year. While the resources states of QLD  and WA are the fastest growing, somewhat suprizingly, Victoria is also growing fast.

2   Melbourne, in Victoria had the fastest price rise with house values up 19% over 2009.
3   Some experts are now quoting returning expatriate workers are boosting the market. Readers will be familiar with this theme. Where, I claim some 900,000 Australians are working overseas. Given Australia is one of the fastest growing developed countries a fair portion must be expected to return, as Australian income tax has fallen and the A Dollar is up.

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4   Recently, some of the government plans to double public transport for instance is generating confidence in Victoria.

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Reading in “The Australian ” of the rising clearances in both values and volumes terms in every major Australian capital. What is really happening in the property market?  Well, Premier Bligh of Queensland, says “Enough is enough, wants to close the southern borders”.
Well make a cat laugh!  Wonder how well that will go?
Perhaps we dont know what is actually happening?
Lets consider some leading economists like BIS Shrapnel ‘s Robinson. His reports are bullish based on a new round of mining projects, based on rebounding commodity prices like Iron ore up 100%, Coal up 120% and a rosier outlook for the growth in the world economy, refer IMF.
Tanya Plibersek, Minister for Housing says ” The problem of a supply shortage in housing has been years in the making”. She would like to blame the previous government. Apparently, population and housing are hot button political areas, as PM Rudd has announced a new portfolio of population study {Mr Tony Burke}.
My view is State government have been under estimating the population growth and under providing capital works, like roads, hospitals, railway stations. Thus buyers are “crowding ‘ into the established suburbs.!
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